Business owners throughout Key West are waiting with nervous anticipation to see how large this year's Fantasy Fest crowds will be.
It's no secret that the event is critical to all kinds of tourist-related businesses to help them get through this slow time of year. But hotel bookings aren't as strong as in the past, leaving many to wonder what effect the recession will have on the number of people coming to Key West for the event.
"Price is a big issue with people at this point in time," said Harold Wheeler, director of the Monroe County Tourist Development Council. "We know that consumers are cutting back on their expenditures, and that will include travel."
Wheeler said people will be looking closely at the cost of transportation and lodging.
"What I'm concerned about is those tourist-related businesses such as attractions, food and beverage, and retailers who will not recoup the money they need so badly [now]," he said.
Jodi Weinhofer, president of the Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West, was more optimistic.
"From what I've heard, honestly, people aren't sold out," she said. "But bookings are on pace with where they should be and people seem relatively pleased with where they are to date. From everything I've heard from the [general managers], if they are not sold, they anticipate being sold out, at least for the weekend."
Weinhofer said there can be lots of last-minute bookings, because the majority of Fantasy Fest crowds are a "drive down" market from mainland Florida.
"People make up their decision at the last minute," she said. "They are going to be calling on Tuesday or Wednesday looking for rooms."
Wheeler wasn't as confident about that, with hotel rates ranging from $200 to $600 a night, and many places requiring a three- or four-night minimum stay.
"I don't think we'll get a last-minute surge of visitors for the event unless the lodging rates are reduced," Wheeler said. "People are very concerned about their expenditures at this time. Their credit cards are maxed out, their savings are down, and they are going to be looking at -- when it comes to spending money -- the best use of their dollar."
Virginia Panico, executive vice president of the Key West Chamber of Commerce, said some properties have begun to drop the minimum-stay lengths and room rates, as a noticeable amount of rooms are still available -- they're usually scarce by this time.
Some properties are nearly sold out, including the Crowne Plaza La Concha, which is popular for parade viewing, and the Pier House Resort Caribbean Spa, which hosts the Pretenders in Paradise event.
"Downtown properties are doing well," Weinhofer said, adding that many guesthouses and bed and breakfasts also have strong bookings. But hotels farther from the action, such as those along North Roosevelt Boulevard, are finding it more difficult to book rooms.
"The pace is slow, the bookings are slow," said George Galvin, general manager of Beachside Resort and Conference Center. "But we're optimistic that we're going to have a successful Fantasy Fest."
The hotel, which opened last fall, has some of the lowest prices in town compared with other newer or renovated large resort properties, with rooms starting at $239 a night. The hotel also has no minimum stay.
"The last thing we want to do is slow it down even more by putting on restrictions," he said.
Galvin said he hopes lower gas prices will encourage last-minute drive-downs.
Kevin Speidel, general manager of the Casa Marina Resort and Beach Club and its sister property, The Reach Resort, said bookings have been weaker than in past years, but that the rooms are slowly but steadily filling up.
"Right now, I've only got, like, 10 rooms left at The Reach, so that looks good. At Casa [Marina] right now, I've got 70 left, but those should go," Speidel said. "I'm not too worried about that. We've been picking up probably 10 to 11 rooms a day the last few days, I've noticed."
There always have been people who come for the event without reservations, hoping to get lucky and find lodgings. This year it seems there will be plenty of availability.
Alison Goldman, owner of Goldman's Bagel Deli in the Overseas Market, said she has seen Fantasy Fest turn back into more of a weekend event for out-of-towners, even though it includes 10 days of activities.
"My sense is that Fantasy Fest will probably be a shorter-term," she said.
Goldman's delivers bagels to many of the hotels and guesthouses in Key West, so she gets a good feel for how full the town is by the number of bagel orders. Goldman was happy to report that many of her accounts were calling in extra orders for Fantasy Fest weekend.
In season, Goldman's may deliver as many as 65 or 70 dozen bagels a day. An average day this time of year equates to 26 to 32 dozen bagels -- that's up to 840 individual bagels. During September, when the hurricanes brushed the area and visitors had to evacuate, her delivery orders shrunk to a dismal eight dozen a day.
Despite slow hotel bookings, Fantasy Fest organizers say the event itself should be as strong as ever.
Fantasy Fest Assistant Director Ashley Hoover said all parade slots are filled and vendor space for the street fair is completely sold out.
Fantasy Fest also features seven new events this year.
"We have more events than we've had in a long time -- 41 this year," Hoover said. "And we have more events earlier in the week, which is great."
Fantasy Fest Director Linda O'Brien said an additional 3,071 out-of-county TV commercials ran this year compared with about 500 last year.
"We've done everything possible to ensure the best Fantasy Fest that we could possibly have for this year," O'Brien said, adding that she knows the whole town is counting on the event.
Business at Fairvilla Mega-store, the island's largest costume store, was up this week, according to store manager Nicki Wilson.
"The last three days are when we started to see that huge increase, and the store's full of people," she said Thursday, adding that she's praying sales will be strong, otherwise the store will have a hard time making it through the rest of the year.
"Fantasy Fest is definitely our salvation," Wilson said. "We have 18 people [who work] here, and we want to keep them employed."
Ben Franklin Island Crafts hasn't experienced the same activity it usually does this time of year, said owner Larry White, who has been in business for 10 years.
"We're very concerned," he said, adding that business is down "more than a little."
He said business has been slow since the end of April, when most of the snowbirds left. He blames the local economy, saying many people have had to leave the island -- including artists who were heavily involved with Fantasy Fest.
And many locals are having a hard time finding work or paying bills, so who's got money to spend on Fantasy Fest costumes?
Perhaps more worrying is what a slow Fantasy Fest would mean for the rest of the tourist season.
"We've always looked to Fantasy Fest to kick off our season," Wheeler said.
"I think this year Fantasy Fest may be a barometer to better understand how our winter season will look."
